By
10 March 1914 Churchill was able to report that the negotiations with the APOC
had reached the point where the necessary documents could be drawn up ‘to give
legal validity to the proposals.’ Although some of the Treasury objections had
been smoothed over the First Lord was concerned that they ‘have proposed that
the agreement shall be entered into subject to the provision by Parliament of
the necessary funds.’ This, Churchill feared, would foster Parliamentary
obstruction to the passage of the Bill, backed by great private interests
outside Parliament such as Shell and Standard Oil. He suggested therefore that,
if the Treasury concurred, the agreement should be subject to the simple, if
sweeping, formula: ‘HMG agree to recommend to Parliament the provision of the
money necessary to carry the Agreement into effect.’ This, he considered,
would rebut the implication that Parliamentary sanction to the Agreement itself
was necessary.
Then, on 17 March, during the debate on the 1914-15 Navy Estimates in the House,
Churchill (not yet able, publicly, to divulge his proposals despite the
inevitable rumours) began the softening up procedure: ‘There is no difficulty
in obtaining oil, none whatever,’ he declared, ‘the difficulty is to get it
at a good price, and we must look to sources which are independent of existing
combinations…’
With the Mesopotamian business apparently all but settled and the
negotiations concerning the Admiralty’s purchase of the APOC holding within
sight of success it appeared as if the solution was almost in hand for the
Admiralty’s oil problems; but not quite — one hurdle remained. The D’Arcy
group, with its 50% holding in the TPC, was to all intents and purposes
identical to the APOC, and Anglo-Persian now intended ‘to find the capital
amounting to £100,000 for the holding company proposed to be registered to hold
the D’Arcy group’s shares in the Turkish Petroleum Company.’ If
successful, the APOC – more than half-owned by the British Government –
could exercise indirect British influence in the Mesopotamian oilfields where a
direct Government interest was out of the question. Welcome though this news was
to the Admiralty, it raised political and diplomatic implications beyond the
confines of that Department; yet the prospect of another long skirmish with the
Foreign Office, Board of Trade and Treasury was anathema and it was to quash any
possible objection that the Admiralty pre-emptively wrote to the Foreign Office
on 6 May.
The Admiralty took the view that D’Arcy’s claim to a share of the
Mesopotamiam oil concession deserved support not only because his group was a
pioneer in the field, but also for the fact that ‘whether
large supplies of oil from Mesopotamia may or may not eventually be required for
naval purposes, the maintenance of British control in the Mesopotamian field
would be beneficial to the operations of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, or
conversely that foreign control in Mesopotamia might prove adverse to the
interest of the Persian field.’ By taking a direct share in the Persian field
the British Government therefore had an ‘indirect interest in the manner in
which oil produced in Mesopotamia may ultimately be marketed.’ This indirect
interest would be strengthened if the proposal put forward by the Deutsche Bank
was accepted: ‘that over any exportable surplus of fuel oil which may be
ultimately available from Mesopotamian fields, the German Government shall have
an option of purchase up to one-third, and the British Government an option of
the same nature and extent.’
The reason for this Admiralty reticence with regard to the Mesopotamiam field
was soon made apparent: if the Government be directly concerned in the
exploitation of this field, such direct intervention would make it ‘impossible
to resist any claim to similar direct participation by the German Government.’
For the Admiralty the proposals had the merit not only of allowing the
APOC to participate in what was generally agreed to be a profitable exercise but
which would also allow a degree of control over the TPC.
The Foreign Office disagreed.
Grey had understood that, if the Government acquired a controlling interest in
the APOC, an essential condition
would
be that the company should be kept as far as possible distinct from any
connection with the Mesopotamian concession, and…that there would be grave
objections of foreign policy to His Majesty’s Government becoming interested,
through a company which they are to control, in the Mesopotamian oil
concessions. Such a consummation would almost inevitably entail a demand for a
corresponding Russian Government control of oil concessions in Armenia, and of
French Government control of oil concessions in Syria, and it is impossible to
view with indifference the possibility of such political interests being created
in different portions of the Ottoman Empire, or
to disregard their possible consequences upon the maintenance of the integrity
of that Empire.
In all communications with the Ottoman and German representatives in
recent negotiations about the Mesopotamian concession, Sir E Grey has caused
emphasis to be laid upon the distinction that it is the D’Arcy group and not
the Anglo-Persian Oil Company which is interested, and I am to draw your
attention to the wording of the agreement of the 19th March, 1914, and to the
signatures attached thereto “on behalf of the D’Arcy group.”
The
Foreign Secretary’s insistence that the D’Arcy group was distinct from the
APOC would not have stood close examination; the APOC was clearly ‘the
D’Arcy group’s parent company’.
Why then did Grey persist, however tenuously, in trying to draw a line between
the two? Aware of the Admiralty’s intention to safeguard its source of oil,
yet desperately trying to prevent the scramble by the other Powers for oil
concessions (for no other reason than the maintenance of Ottoman territorial
integrity) Grey could do little else but attempt to disguise the extent of
British involvement.
Grey was further alarmed when the French, having since learned of the
signing of the 19 March agreement, inquired whether the British Government had a
pecuniary interest in the Mesopotamian concession only to be disingenuously
informed that no such financial interest existed and that the agreement had been
signed on behalf of the Government ‘merely in order to indicate their
concurrence in the terms of the agreement’. Sir Edward was particularly
caustic about the Admiralty contention that British control of the Mesopotamiam
fields ‘would be beneficial to the operations of the Anglo-Persian Oil
Company’: he had been repeatedly given to understand that if the APOC and the
Admiralty reached a satisfactory agreement ‘any danger which might otherwise
be apprehended, owing to unfair competition from the Mesopotamian oilfields
being in other hands, could be virtually disregarded: in other words, that the
danger was principally due to the relatively weak financial position of the
Anglo-Persian Oil Company and its consequent inability to face competition.’
But now, Grey declared, this did not appear to be the case — at least as far
as the Admiralty were concerned. Nevertheless, he trusted that it would be
possible to devise some other method to ensure the Turkish Petroleum Company
should remain at least 50% British. To this effect the Board of Trade had put
forward a tentative proposal that the necessary capital should be furnished by
the Burmah Oil Company.
At first Burmah Oil would only proceed on the basis of an indemnity against
possible loss; as a consequence, a new scheme was proposed in July 1914 for the
APOC to make a straightforward loan to D’Arcy. By November – when the Indian
Expeditionary Force had already landed to guard the oilfields – the Burmah
deal was resurrected to prevent the APOC gaining a stranglehold on D’Arcy.
By
comparison, the conclusion of the Admiralty purchase of the APOC shareholding
was finalized swiftly though, also, not without further controversy. The
agreement outlined by Churchill on 11 May 1914 was sanctioned by the Cabinet two
days later and signed on 20 May. The agreement had written into it the
oft-quoted Admiralty policy to spread its contracts ‘as much as possible’
over widely separated fields so that, in times of emergency, one dependable
source would be able to make up the deficiencies for failure of delivery
elsewhere. This now assumed greater import as ‘foreign navies are on the road
to becoming large consumers of oil, and…in the course of time they will be
entering the market for increased quantities, and competing still more keenly
with HMG for prompt supplies. This will probably have the effect of inflating
prices or reducing available supplies, and for this reason alone it is necessary
to make provision now to safeguard the position.’
Churchill did not, of course, neglect other sources of supply: whatever he
thought personally of Marcus Samuel (and he was scathing), he did at least share
Fisher’s admiration for Deterding. Churchill made clear to Sir Frederick Black
in March that he wished to see Deterding to propose that the Admiralty take
delivery during 1914-15 ‘of as much oil of his 1915-16 contract as he can send
us within the limits of our freight engagements, and that we have an option to
pay for this excess oil either in 1914-15 or in 1915-16.’
The Admiralty still depended on Shell as a major supplier, at least until the
Anglo-Persian’s wells came on-stream, another eventuality foreshadowed in the
APOC agreement.
The tendency for the oilfields of the world to fall more and more under
the control of a comparatively few large concerns was, it was conceded, probably
unavoidable:
…A
large consumer like the Admiralty, with the national interest of naval defence
in its keeping, cannot, however, place itself in a position of dependence for
vital supplies upon a few large Companies whose interests are necessarily
cosmopolitan and financial, admittedly efficient, and possessing great
resources. It is important and essential in naval interests to secure that at
least one large British Oil Company shall be maintained, having independent
control of considerable supplies of natural petroleum, and bound to the
Government by financial and contractual obligations. Such an arrangement can
hardly fail to have its effect not merely on the supplies directly so obtained,
but on the terms and conditions on which the whole of the Admiralty requirements
will be met, owing to the greater independence and bargaining power thus
obtained…
Churchill
gave five principal conditions which he considered would have to be fulfilled
before a satisfactory settlement of the fuel question could be achieved: first,
oil would have to be obtained of a suitable quality for use in British ships;
second, it would be necessary to reduce Admiralty exposure to great price
fluctuations and thereby attain an economical average cost; third, security of
supply would have to be assured; fourth, economic transport would have to be
arranged and in such a way that the tankers were kept in regular employment;
and, last, concomitantly with the latter, economic storage was required. To
assuage Foreign Office fears Churchill laid particular emphasis on his new
rationale: ‘The grounds on which HMG arrived at their decision to enter into
the Agreement with the APOC are purely naval, viz.,
the imperative need of direct control of a
reasonable proportion of the supply of oil fuel required for naval purposes.’
While, for the Foreign Office, the deal remained a useful counter to
Russian penetration in southern Persia (once reservations over the financing
were reluctantly discarded) the Admiralty rationale depended only in part on
forestalling other navies but in very large measure on the basis of striking an
excellent bargain. When the deal finally became public knowledge on 23 May the
Government must have expected criticism from certain quarters, though it is less
certain they anticipated the storm which now broke around their heads. The India
Office and Indian Government – excluded from the negotiations following their
luke-warm response in the summer of 1913 – were both shocked to discover the
extent of the defence commitment that now devolved upon them as a result (in
their view) of the Admiralty’s highly irregular financing arrangements. Marcus
Samuel was, naturally, outraged, while the clear threat to the indigenous coal
industry was cited by others. There was also the wider political implication
involved in the likely offence to be caused to Russia who would consider the
move ‘an example of flagrant British peaceful penetration in Persia.’
‘Is it not the case’, Grey had inquired of Churchill on 28 May, ‘that some
of the oil wells of importance are in the British sphere in Persia? And as to
the rest in the Neutral Sphere what distance are they from the coast…The real
point is that S. Persia near the coast is more controllable by us than other
centres of oil production in the world, which are entirely out of our reach.’
To try to overcome Russian apprehensions, Grey was, by July, ‘urging the
Admiralty to see if they cannot agree that the development of oil-wells further
north than the one already working should be leased to a Russian, or
Anglo-Russian, subsidiary Company.’
Churchill, in turn, had to fend off Shell. Marcus Samuel wrote to Sir
Francis Hopwood on 29 May that ‘It does appear to me to be an extraordinary
course to take that just at the moment when others are successfully developing
supplies of liquid fuel in territories under British jurisdiction – in
Trinidad, in Egypt, and in Sarawak – the Government choose that moment to
support a company which is solely dependent upon producing oil in a territory
which, if I am rightly informed, is largely situated outside the British sphere
of influence in the “neutral zone” in Persia, and, according to Lord
Kitchener and Admiral Slade’s opinion, involving grave difficulties in
protecting it should trouble with Russia arise.’ Samuel saw grave objection to
the Government being involved with a company which would have to compete with
commercial organizations; he could not reconcile the stated Admiralty position
of diversification of supply against the association with one company and one
group. He also forecast disingenuously that the Admiralty move would be
counter-productive as it would ‘so discourage the commercial production of
fuel oil in other parts of the world that the tendency will be to throw the
Admiralty back purely upon Persia as its source of supply.’
At Hopwood’s ‘invitation’ Samuel laid a few suggestions before the
Admiralty. The first amounted to no more than a crude bribe — the APOC had an
agreement with Shell with regard to kerosene and benzine: if Anglo-Persian
remained ‘a purely commercial concern’ Shell would extend this agreement for
at least twenty years. Samuel also feared that in seeking to obtain large
supplies of oil from Persia the Government would ‘be compelled to force the
manufacture of such large quantities of other petroleum products as may swamp
the market and ruin our business.’ He proposed to mitigate this by suggesting
that:
…before
increasing the quantities of liquid fuel deliverable by the Persian Company to
the Government beyond an agreed minimum figure, the Government should give the
option to all producers in the British Empire…to supply fuel to the Admiralty,
provided they can do so at the same price delivered in the United Kingdom, and
that only if these sources fail should the Admiralty have recourse to Persia for
increased quantities…
Churchill
circulated Samuel’s letters to his colleagues on 9 June, describing them as
showing ‘with much ingenuousness the objections which as a great oil
monopolist he entertains towards the Government policy in acquiring an
independent source of oil supply.’ To stop Shell in its tracks, Churchill
added the stern admonition: ‘The suggestion that we should enter into an
agreement with the Shell to keep prices up to the present blackmailing levels
deserves notice.’
Churchill was unfair in his criticisms of Shell; the company was, after all,
driven by commercial interest just as much as the APOC. Furthermore, Shell’s
wartime activities would belie the charge often previously levelled that the
company would not operate in Britain’s best interests. As early as 31 July
1914 Fisher wrote to Churchill that he had just received ‘a most patriotic
letter from Deterding to say he means you shan’t want for oil or tankers in
case of war — Good old Deterding!
How these Dutchmen do hate the Germans!’
The outbreak of war was to wipe away all criticisms of the Admiralty deal
and confirm Churchill’s strategic vision;
yet it was not quite that simple. A good deal had been obtained for the
Admiralty (and price had been the overwhelming factor throughout) but at a heavy
cost of another kind — the possibility of having to defend the installations
at some future point. In addition, the whole arrangement rested upon a non
sequitur: that because a field was under British control the oil supply was
dependable while, somehow, foreign fields could not be relied upon. Royal Navy
command of the sea was a more important factor than geographical location: when
this command was disputed during the war by unrestricted submarine warfare the
Admiralty turned to the nearest convenient source, the United States, which, by
1917, was supplying 80% of Britain’s oil needs.
Hardinge had already complained in 1915 that the military occupation of the
Persian oilfields by Indian forces was an uncalled-for diversion as the
Admiralty could surely count on America for all the oil required. This was
typical of Indian antipathy towards the Admiralty’s preoccupation with oil.
Nor could the APOC alleviate the critical fuel shortage of 1917 when supply was
reduced to three weeks as a whole and less at some bases.
‘The oil supplies of the world were in the hands of vast oil trusts
under foreign control’, Churchill later wrote in The
World Crisis, echoing the arguments used by Greenway to convince the First
Lord at the time, but which would not hold up under close scrutiny. In his
dealings with Anglo-Persian Churchill desired to prevent giving a hostage to
fortune in the form of a supposed Shell world monopoly; instead the Admiralty
created another hostage to fortune by virtue of the probable defence of the
Persian installations from Ottoman attack, a fact glossed over by Churchill:
…To
commit the Navy irrevocably to oil was indeed ‘to take arms against a sea of
troubles.’ Wave after wave, dark with storm, crested with foam, surged towards
the harbour in which we still sheltered. Should we drive out into the teeth of
the gale, or should we bide contented where we were? Yet beyond the breakers was
a great hope. If we overcame the difficulties and surmounted the risks, we
should be able to raise the whole power and efficiency of the Navy to a
definitely higher level; better ships, better crews, higher economies, more
intense forms of war-power — in a word, mastery itself was the prize of the
venture. A year gained over a rival might make the difference. Forward, then!
The
oil fields had one further use not envisaged by Churchill. When, in September
1914, war with Turkey appeared imminent, the Military Secretary of the India
Office advocated an immediate landing by Empire troops ‘at Muhamerrah or at
Abadan Island, ostensibly to protect the oil installation, but in reality to notify
the Turks that we meant business and to the Arabs that we were ready to support
them.’
On
15 June 1914 the Anglo-German Agreement concerning the Baghdad Railway and
Mesopotamia was signed. ‘Along with the agreements on railway and shipping
questions’, the Kaiser was informed, ‘a thorough understanding has been
achieved on action with regard to the production of petroleum in Asia Minor…It
will probably be possible to obtain an agreement whereby a third of the total
production will be earmarked each for the German and British navies, and only a
third will be on sale in the open market…’
Furthermore, once it had been agreed that the railway line would not be extended
beyond Basra (which would have taken it therefore into the British sphere) Grey
did not especially care that the Germans would build the railway — an attitude
which contrasts sharply with the Foreign Office reaction to the proposed Russian
Trans-Persian railway, which Grey viewed with great apprehension.
As has been shown, with the outbreak of war against Turkey in November 1914,
Grey soon became alarmed at Russian incursions into Persia; in an attempt to
accommodate them elsewhere he was forced to concede that ‘a general assurance
that a settlement of the question of the Straits in the Russia interest was
necessary.’
The maintenance of the British position at the head of the Persian Gulf
had become the sine qua non of British
policy, to the extent of allowing the Russian claims on Constantinople and the
Straits in an effort to divert the Russians from encroaching on that vital area
and ensuring that they remained committed to the war against Germany. The
momentum which began with Grey’s assurances to the Russians late in 1914 had
its logical conclusion in the Straits Agreement of March 1915. By January 1915,
Britain had a complete division in the Basra region, a garrison of one and a
quarter battalions at Muscat, a few weak detachments on the Persian coast, three
battalions at Aden and the equivalent of three Field Divisions on the Indian
Frontier. Behind this however was only an exiguous force of Territorials and
Indian regiments ‘providing the bare minimum required for the internal defence
of India and quite incapable of furnishing even small reinforcements for Aden or
the Persian Gulf…We have vast interests at stake all over the East’,
lamented Sir Edmund Barrow, ‘and we have absolutely no reserves left to meet
possible or even probable developments.’ Worse, the Turks had invaded
north-west Persia and seemed about to move in south-west Persia where they could
threaten the APOC oilfields and pipeline. If ‘Turkish intrigue, German gold
and fanatical influences’ caused the defection of some of the Arab chiefs to
the Turkish side, Barrow warned, ‘our position at Basra may become somewhat
difficult, not to use a stronger word.’ To secure the control of south-west
Persia and to reinforce the Expeditionary Force would require the dispatch of
‘at least another Division.’
The time had come to honour the intrinsic pledge inherent in the considerations
of the Foreign Office – to maintain Persia as a buffer state against Russia
– and to face up to the unspoken assumptions created by the ad
hoc arrangements of the Admiralty to secure an ostensibly dependable supply
of oil.
Hardinge visited the oil works at Abadan on 3 February 1915 and noted
that they were ‘being extended largely to meet Admiralty demands.’ He
confessed privately to Nicolson that,
In
the first instance I was strongly opposed to the acquisition by the Admiralty of
so large a share in this undertaking since I realised that the responsibility
for its defence would fall upon India. Now I am delighted that we have so large
a stake in Abadan, since it makes it absolutely certain that we can never give
up Busrah which I regard as the key of the Gulf. When once we are firmly
established at Busrah the importance of Bushire and of Gulf politics in general
will be very much diminished. It is therefore absolutely essential from every
point of view that we should remain at Busrah when we shall have complete
control over the trade of Mesopotamia, and we ought to be able to make the
Busrah vilayet into a second Egypt…
Hardinge’s
volte-face brought him more into line with Nicolson’s feelings. As
the preparations mounted off the Dardanelles early in February 1915, presaging
the commencement of the naval attempt to force the Straits, the Russophile
Nicolson wished that Russia herself was in a position to strike a blow at
Constantinople; indeed, he believed that only the Bosphorus minefield held her
back from the attempt.
At the time however the Russians were not generally aware of the
Anglo-French operation at the Dardanelles: Grey was certainly not keen to
broadcast news of the forthcoming attack which led, ineluctably, to a
confrontation with the Russian Ambassador. Benckendorff, who had learned of the
planned assault from the French, pressed Grey for more information as he was
naturally ‘anxious’ that Sazonov be informed. Grey then telegraphed Buchanan
in Petrograd on 11 February to sanction an exchange of information which was,
however, to be kept to a minimum: ‘You should tell MFA very confidentially
that a serious attempt will be made to force the Straits’, Buchanan was
instructed. ‘…You may add that attack will begin in about a week. If you
have already told MFA it is unnecessary to say more.’ To justify this less
than forthright approach, Grey mentioned that the Russian Commander-in-Chief,
the Grand Duke Nicholas, had been informed ‘some time ago, and Russian
military and naval co-operation invited.’
Sazonov had, in the meantime, redefined Russian territorial ambitions
with regard to Turkey; these now included everything on the European side (with
the exception of Constantinople), and sufficient territory on the Asiatic side
to enable the Russians to guard the entrance to the Black Sea.
Constantinople, itself, was not mentioned. Even so it was enough to make
Ambassador Bertie, in Paris, see red: he was ‘horrified at the pretensions of
Sazonow’ and entreated Grey not to ‘admit any such interpretation of your
promises to the Russian Government.’ His fears were twofold: the Russian
claims would destroy any chance of Roumania and Bulgaria siding with the Entente
and second, ‘how about our interests in the future in the event of our having
difficulties with Russia.’
Grey was quite prepared however to push the Russians in the direction of
Constantinople to divert them from seeking territorial gains at the expense of
either Germany or Austria-Hungary.
Despite Bertie’s admonition to Grey, Sazonov believed (if he did not divine
the exact reasons) that he could make progress with his demands in London; the
French were another matter. Grey had, for example, sought retrospective approval
from the French for his November 1914 assurance to the Russians; when finally
given the opportunity to comment, the French Foreign Minister, Delcassé, had
pointedly referred to the problems that would be created, then and in the
future, by the Russian possession of Constantinople.
Now, in February 1915, the parallel Franco-Russian negotiations were proceeding
slowly: ‘While I received news from London that our demands were accepted’,
Sazonov later wrote, ‘in Paris they still insisted on making the Straits
neutral and internationalizing Constantinople.’
Delcassé was in London early in February where, on the 8th, he lunched
with Grey, Asquith, Kitchener and Churchill to discuss the question of joint
action in the Near East, with the specific intention of suggesting that an
attempt be made to relieve the pressure on Serbia by an Anglo-French move
against Salonica; Delcassé reported that the French Cabinet approved in
principle. The British were lukewarm, in particular General Sir John French who
delivered the usual protest that he could not spare regular troops as he had
promised General Joffre that he would relieve the French Army Corps in front of
Ypres by 15 March. French was only persuaded to give his reluctant consent when
it was pointed out to him that ‘troops could not be sent to Salonica except on
the assumption that Greece entered the war; that the arrival of Greek troops on
the Servian frontier would inevitably draw Austro-German troops there, who must
de diverted from elsewhere; and that, if Roumania also joined in, as was to be
hoped, the diversion would be more than justified.’
Notwithstanding this close consultation misunderstandings could still
arise, as they did with regard to the Dardanelles when, on 20 February (the day
after the naval bombardment commenced), Grey was forced to explain to Cambon
that
…the
decision to send a division from England, which was communicated to the French
Govt some days ago, has been suspended till it was seen how the naval
operations, which were to begin at once progressed. Subsequently I heard at the
Admiralty that the naval brigade would go from here but that is entirely under
Admiralty control. As the Admiral in charge of the operations may require early
military assistance to make good his operations against the forts, 30,000 men of
the Australian and New Zealand contingents now in Egypt have been placed at his
disposal and will proceed as he requires them. If the French Govt wish to send
troops their presence and co-operation will be very welcome. I have been given
the impression that you think the operation against the Dardanelles should be
delayed till military arrangements have been concerted with the French Govt; but
it would be disastrous to postpone or delay these operations. So much that is
important to the common cause depends upon their success and it is truly in the
common cause that they are undertaken.
This
was more typical of the chaotic manner of running the war than any attempt at
deviousness. Nowhere was this chaotic aspect more in evidence than at the
episodic meetings of Asquith’s War Council, where, according to Hankey, the
discussion tended to be ‘rather rambling.’
In a further, unintentional, condemnation Hankey described to Balfour the
ad hoc meeting of 16 February at which
‘decisions of the very first importance were arrived at. There was no formal
meeting of the War Council. In the first instance Sir Edward Grey called on the
Prime Minister; Lord Kitchener happened to call; financial business was
discussed and Mr Lloyd George was summoned; and later on Mr Churchill & Lord
Fisher were sent for. I was not present, but I have received a full account of
what happened from Mr Lloyd George, Lord Fisher, and the Prime Minister…’
Asquith’s supine leadership had left the ship of state rudderless;
increasingly the figure who could be made out at the helm was Churchill, who was
clearly in his element; and all the while, looking over Churchill’s shoulder,
was Lloyd George.
While the central policy making body operated in such a haphazard
fashion, Ministers and others formulated their own plans for alternative action.
Each pushed the competing claims for his own scheme, to the detriment of others;
few were willing to stand back and look objectively. Arthur Balfour was one of
those few; he was particularly keen to remove the confusion he believed
surrounded the two military operations under discussion at the time, which he
labelled the ‘Bosphorus’ operation and the ‘Balkan’ operation. By the
former he meant control of the Sea of Marmora, the Bosphorus and Constantinople
which would, he argued, paralyse Turkey, guarantee free communications with
Russia, secure the neutrality of Bulgaria and defeat German ambitions in the
Near East which was, to some, just as important a consideration as limiting
Russian encroachment in Central Asia.
It was difficult, however, to see how the Bosphorus and Constantinople could be
controlled by purely naval operations, yet already, five days before Balfour’s
memorandum, the opening bombardment at the Dardanelles, by ships alone, had
commenced. Buchanan reported privately from Petrograd that the news of the
bombardment had not excited any great enthusiasm ‘as I think people are rather
nervous lest, should we succeed in forcing the passage and should a successful
counter revolution break out in Constantinople, we might be tempted to make
peace with Turkey on terms incompatible with Russian aspirations.’
What Buchanan did not know was that tentative peace negotiations with Turkey,
designed to buy her out of the war, were already under way.
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