On
31 August 1876, not yet three months after the death of his uncle, Sultan Abdul
Aziz, whose place he took, the Sultan of Turkey, Murad V, pleading insanity, was
deposed and succeeded by Abdul Hamid II. The unstable Murad was sane enough not
to fancy going the way of his uncle who had allegedly committed suicide by the
novel means of a frenzied attack upon his own body with a small pair of
barber’s scissors.
It was an inauspicious moment for the new ruler to assume the throne: in the
summer of the previous year rebellion against Turkish rule had broken out in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, while, in a foretaste of the economic problems that
would plague his own reign, his predecessor Abdul Aziz had suspended first one
half, then the other half, of the payment of interest on the Ottoman debt. The
country’s standing fell even lower when, during the week of 9-16 March 1876,
Turkish irregular troops perpetrated an appalling massacre against the
Bulgarians, the news of which would (when it eventually appeared in the Western
press in late June) create widespread revulsion and destroy the last vestiges of
hope that the reforms promised as long ago as 1856 would ever be carried
through.
And, to complete a desolate picture, by 2 July 1876 both Serbia and Montenegro
had declared war on Turkey; although, as it turned out, the war provided some
scant relief as, not for the last time, but to general surprise, the Turkish
military performed well, winning success on the battlefield.
In the event, the succession of Abdul Hamid II (later to become
universally known as Abdul the Damned) was greeted initially with some
enthusiasm amongst those usually associated as being friends of Turkey, Disraeli
foremost. The Prime Minister’s last speech in the Commons took place during
the debate on the massacre allegations, in which he justifiably sought to
portray the reports as exaggerated, but which would call for action if proven.
In seeking to defend, however minutely, the indefensible Disraeli’s motives
stemmed not so much from his supposed Turcophile sentiments as from a misreading
of the threat posed to the route to India by a Russian presence in
Constantinople if, as seemed likely, Russia entered the war. Disraeli’s
opinion that, in the event of their participation, the Russian army could sweep
through Syria to the Nile (thus negating any possible advantage stemming from
the annexation of Egypt) was an uncharacteristic lapse of judgment by the
statesman who, only a year earlier, had pulled off the inspired purchase of the
Khedive’s share of the Suez Canal company. Nevertheless Disraeli maintained
that ‘Our strength is on the sea. Constantinople is the Key of India, and not
Egypt and the Suez Canal.’
Any hope that his last Commons’ performance might have quelled the
agitation being fomented at home was soon destroyed by the publication, in early
September, of Gladstone’s famous pamphlet The
Bulgarian Horrors and the Question of the East which advocated the removal
of the Turks from Europe ‘bag and
baggage’. Gladstone’s plea came five days after the Turks had defeated the
Serbs at Alexinatz, and a day after the Foreign Secretary, Lord Derby, had
warned the rampaging Turks not to expect British support in the event of a
Russian declaration of war. On 31 October 1876 the Russians demanded that the
Turks agree to a six week armistice in their struggle in the Balkans; it was a
demand Abdul Hamid could hardly refuse, but which gave Derby a chance to propose
a conference of Great Powers at Constantinople as, meanwhile, the War Office
worked out plans to occupy the Dardanelles. Yet, no sooner had the delegates
arrived for what many viewed as a wearisome task than the liberal Grand Vizier,
Midhat Pasha, unveiled a new constitution which he at least believed was a
sincere attempt to rekindle internal reform, even if he was also aware that the
delegates would inevitably see it as a diversion.
The Conference achieved more or less what was expected of it – nothing – and
broke up on 20 January 1877 amidst recrimination and the withdrawal of the
ambassadors of the Powers. Midhat Pasha did not last much longer; his liberal
views threatened the Sultan and he was dismissed on 5 February, with his place
being taken by the hard-line Edem Pasha. The Turkish army however, revivified by
the enforced armistice and fortified by recent victories, actually began to
fancy its chances against the Russians; they would not have long to wait.
The first Ottoman parliament met in the shadow of the Aya Sophia on 19
March 1877,
the day after Russia had secured a promise of neutrality from Austria-Hungary
which made war with Turkey almost inevitable; assuredly so after the Sultan
refused the final, watered down, demand for reforms. On 24 April Russia declared
war on Turkey. Turkish opinion as to their prospects against such a formidable
enemy soon proved hopelessly optimistic. Despite some Russian reverses the
situation had become so serious that, on 21 July, the Cabinet in London decided
to declare war on Russia if she occupied Constantinople, even temporarily.
Naturally unaware of this, the Russians surged on; the destruction of
Turkey-in-Europe appeared certain until Russian forces ran into the fortress of
Plevna and its heroic defender, Osman Pasha, who would hold off the invaders
until 10 December.
A Turkish plea, two days after the fall of Plevna, for the powers to step in and
mediate went unheeded and, by 9 January 1878, following a further capitulation
at Shipka Pass, the Turks unsuccessfully appealed directly to Russia for an
armistice; eleven days later the key strategic city of Adrianople fell. Public
opinion in Britain, particularly in the south of the country, now switched: the
Turkish massacres momentarily forgotten, a wave of anti-Russian feeling (which
was not quite the same thing as pro-Turkish) swept through London and landed on
the head of Gladstone, who was now vilified. With the Russians almost before the
very walls of Constantinople the order was given for the British Mediterranean
Fleet to enter the Dardanelles and proceed to the beleaguered capital.
Off the Straits, Admiral Sir Geoffrey Phipps Hornby, in the aptly named HMS
Sultan, informed the Governor-General of the Dardanelles on 25 January 1878
that he was proceeding ‘immediately with the squadron under my command to
Constantinople’ following a request from the Sultan ‘that these ships might
be ready to enter the Dardanelles at once should the Russians advance towards
Gallipoli.’
Later
that day, having proceeded as far as Chanak and having received the permission
of the Commandant of the military forces to pass the forts, Phipps Hornby was
suddenly ordered by the British Government to reverse course, anchor in Besika
Bay and await further orders.
This move reflected not so much caution on the side of the British but rather
the well-merited fear of the Turks that the action might provoke the Russians to
break off the armistice negotiations. In the event, with both armies now
exhausted, an armistice was signed on 31 January
though eight days later, after the Grand Duke Nicholas moved his headquarters
forward to Tchatalja, the last defensive bastion before Constantinople, orders
were reissued (against the wishes of Abdul Hamid who was being pressured by the
Russians) to Phipps Hornby to proceed into the Sea of Marmora.
In an attempt to legitimize the British move, Abdul Hamid cynically
convoked parliament to seek the approval of the deputies for an invitation to be
issued to the fleet which, it appeared, he would obtain; until, that is, a
humble baker rose to rebuke the Sultan: ‘You have asked for our opinions too
late…The Chamber declines all responsibility for a situation for which it had
nothing to do.’
The continuing Russian pressure was not eased until the signing of the
preliminary treat of San Stefano on 3 March 1878, which would have created an
enlarged Bulgaria — an unalluring prospect which displeased many, including
elements within the Russian Foreign Ministry itself. The fallout was not long in
coming. Austria-Hungary was not happy and repudiated the treaty on 25 March.
Britain also was not happy and, two days after the snub delivered in Vienna,
fearing renewed Russian aggression and failing to receive a satisfactory reply
that the terms of the treaty should be open for discussion at the proposed
Congress of Berlin, the reserves were called up and Indian troops dispatched to
Malta. After this show of aggression, the crisis claimed a prominent victim when
Derby resigned, prompted finally by the suggestion to send British troops to
Cyprus and Alexandretta to prop up Turkey in Asia;
Salisbury succeeded him as Foreign Secretary.
The Russians, exhausted by the unexpectedly protracted war, could not
risk hostilities against Great Britain – a fear Salisbury was able to exploit
successfully – with the result that a secret Anglo-Russian agreement to cut
down the size of Bulgaria was concluded on 30 May, a fortnight before the first
session of the Congress of Berlin. Salisbury then went further and imposed upon
the Turks a Defensive Alliance with
respect to the Asiatic Provinces, signed by the British Ambassador, Layard,
in Constantinople on 4 June. For the protection thus offered against further
Russian encroachment Britain demanded in return a promise by the Sultan to
introduce meaningful reforms covering the Government and to safeguard Christian
and other subjects in Asia while, in a less than subtle hint that Salisbury
meant business, the Convention stipulated that ‘in order to enable England to
make the necessary provision for executing her engagements, His Imperial Majesty
the Sultan further consents to assize the Island of Cyprus to be occupied and
administered by England.’
Despite the secret agreements preceding it (or, perhaps, because of them)
the Congress of Berlin did not go smoothly. For the Russians the Congress
represented a diplomatic defeat, the recognition of which brought on a display
of obstreperous behaviour and the near collapse of the talks. Salisbury also was
looking for more than could be delivered by seeking to redress the balance in
the Black Sea where it was feared the Russians would convert newly acquired
Batum into a fortified base. As the Congress wound down in July Salisbury
sought, on the 11th, to have a declaration inserted in the Protocol that the
obligations of Britain ‘relating to the closing of the Straits do not go
further than an engagement with the Sultan to respect in this matter His
Majesty’s independent determinations in conformity with the spirit of existing
Treaties.’ The Russian delegates, ‘without being able exactly to appreciate
the meaning of the proposition’, demanded on the following (penultimate) day
of the Congress that the Treaty obligations regarding the Straits should be
binding on all Powers, rather than, as Salisbury desired, a bilateral agreement
with the Sultan.
Despite this, the British remained confirmed in their belief that the strength
of their Mediterranean Fleet (as evidenced by Phipps Hornby’s entrance into
the Sea of Marmora) was sufficient to allow them to override the wishes of the
Sultan by reasoning that, if assent was not forthcoming, His Majesty was
obviously not independent. Nevertheless, the obligations of Britain were to the
Sultan, not the other Powers.
At the conclusion of the Congress Disraeli (now the Earl of Beaconsfield)
returned in triumph to London; no less deserving was Salisbury, whose
co-operation with Austria-Hungary would augur well for the future and would
culminate in the Mediterranean Agreement of March 1887 between Britain, Austria
and Italy which preserved the status quo.
Bulgaria, now reduced in size, would not become the expected Russian satellite;
a large portion of Turkey-in-Europe remained, but with no guarantee of reforms;
and Abdul Hamid continued in power in Constantinople. He had survived the crises
— but for how long? Salisbury’s opinion was typical: ‘We shall set up a
rickety sort of Turkish rule again south of the Balkans. But it is a mere
respite. There is no vitality left in them.’
This reckoned without the Sultan who, having obtained the armistice with Russia
and secured British backing, had already suspended the constitution of Midhat on
14 February 1878 and dissolved parliament after the baker’s rebuke, yet, as a
cruel taunt, kept the chamber in good order for the day it might reconvene. The
empty chamber stood as a tangible if illusory promise. The ostensible liberal
leanings of Abdul Hamid were soon exposed as he then proceeded instead on a
reign of personal despotism and tyranny that would last a generation leaving
Salisbury to complain in 1897 that, in the policy of supporting Turkey, Britain
had backed ‘the wrong horse’. The unfortunate Midhat, having been sent into
exile in 1878 along with his constitution, was lured back to Constantinople
where he was tried and convicted in 1881 for the ‘murder’ of Abdul Aziz and
was imprisoned in the Yemen where he too would die at the hands of an assassin
three years later.
Yet the easy judgment on the negative aspects of the Sultan’s reign was
too simplistic as progress could be found if one looked in the right places: a
small railway system of 1,780 kilometres in 1888 would expand threefold within
20 years; the road network demonstrated a similar improvement; the postal
service enlarged considerably, indicative of the progress being made in
elementary education and vocational colleges, which additionally showed up in
increased book production and newspaper circulation; administrative reforms were
put in place and the system of justice overhauled. Little information of these
advances filtered back to Britain but, even if it had, ‘they could never have
counterbalanced the abrogation of parliamentary rights, the suppression of
personal freedoms, or the lurid image of the royal spider trapping hapless
opponents in a web of espionage and intrigue.’
Further, Salisbury’s remark was perhaps more suggestive of his annoyance over
continued Turkish atrocities – this time the Armenian massacres – than an
admission that he would have preferred any other power at Constantinople. Even
so, the omens were not propitious for the Sultan as, by this time and
notwithstanding Disraeli’s dictum, the British grip on Egypt had secured the
route to India, and Salisbury could look with greater equanimity at the
possibility of the partition of Turkey.
Indeed,
a Russian plan to seize the upper Bosphorus – the Nelidov project – had been
approved on 5 December 1896, only to be then vetoed by the French who, despite
the 1893 Franco-Russian alliance would not assist the Russians militarily for
fear of a general war; desperate for French finance, the Russians dropped their
plans for the Straits and looked elsewhere for their adventures, their
acquisitive gaze turning to the Far East. In the meantime Salisbury had been
approached by the Austrian Ambassador with a proposal for joint action against
the Russians; Salisbury was not interested. He informed his Ambassador in Vienna
that disgust at the Sultan had turned public opinion Turcophobe, that Abdul
Hamid had run down the fortifications guarding the Straits but that,
paradoxically, according to Salisbury’s naval advisers the prospect of forcing
the Straits was now a much more difficult operation.
In part this was due to apprehension over the power of the forts – however run
down they may have been – but, more particularly, as a result of the
Franco-Russian alliance, a British Fleet trying to attempt the feat could find
itself sandwiched between the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the French
Mediterranean Fleet.
Thus spurned, the Austrians turned to the Russians instead and concluded,
in May 1897, an agreement which stated in part that ‘It was equally recognised
that the question of Constantinople and of the adjacent territory as well as
that of the Straits (Dardanelles and Bosphorus), having an eminently European
character, is not of a nature to be made the object of a separate understanding
between Austria-Hungary and Russia.’ The Russian Foreign Minister ‘did not
hesitate to declare in this connection that, far from striving for any
modification of the present state of things, sanctioned by the Treaty of Paris
and the Convention of London the Imperial Government held, on the contrary, to
the complete maintenance of the provision relative thereto, which gave full and
entire satisfaction to Russia in prohibiting, by the closing of the Straits,
access to the Black Sea to foreign war vessels.’
Although the reciprocal maintenance of the status
quo thus pledged provided a breathing space for Britain, amongst others,
this would prove to be only a temporary lull in Britain’s troubled relations
in the littoral and interior of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean before
the confrontation with France following the Fashoda incident of 1898.
With the other Powers engaged elsewhere, or content to leave the Sultan
to his own devices, Germany stepped in to fill the vacuum. Not that German
interest in the Ottoman Empire was something new:
studies had been made in the 1880s regarding the feasibility of exploiting its
resources and, as early as 1888, a concession had been obtained for the first
stage of the Baghdad railway;
the following year the new Kaiser, Wilhelm II, paid his first visit to
Constantinople. Nevertheless, by the time of his second visit late in 1898,
despite a rise in both imports and exports between the two countries, there was
still little tangible evidence of German economic penetration: even the
Kaiser’s travel arrangements were handled by Thomas Cook.
For the Sultan the prospect of Germany occupying the place of Britain as ersatz
protector of his Empire was irresistible and the Kaiser was fêted wherever he
ventured in Abdul Hamid’s domain while exasperated court officials complained
that the expenses of the various receptions exceeded T£1 million at a time when
‘civil and military officers are literally starving.’
At the time, the Sultan ‘was under the odium and cloud of the Armenian
massacres’ and had been forced to suffer the displeasure of the Powers, who
had interfered in the recent war against Greece ‘to prevent Turkey reaping the
benefits of her military successes and Greece from suffering the punishment of
her aggressive policy’. Although Wilhelm ostensibly concurred in these
measures he nevertheless ‘came to Constantinople with the Empress, spent a
week at Yildiz, showed himself as the personal friend of the Sultan, and, as far
as lay in his power, whitewashed the Sultan before Europe. If the policy of
Germany was neither humane nor creditable, it was at all events positive and
material. It secured them the concession of the Baghdad Railway, the monopoly of
all orders for military munitions for the Turkish Army, and a privileged
position for all industrial and commercial Concessions which it was in the power
of the Sultan to bestow upon his friend and patron.’
By granting these concessions Abdul Hamid thereby hoped to give Germany an
economic stake in the country which might oblige her ‘to intervene on the
Porte’s behalf in both political crises and war.’
The month after Wilhelm’s visit the Deutsche Bank obtained a
preliminary concession for the extension of the Baghdad railway to the Persian
Gulf.
The Baghdad Railway scheme, in itself, was not new and had originated with a
young British army officer, F. R. Chesney, in the 1830s — before the advent of
the Suez Canal, Chesney developed the idea of a railway from a Mediterranean
port to the head of the Euphrates and, from there, by river transport to Basra,
as an ideal route to India; eventually, the railway itself could be extended to
cover the whole route. Chesney’s lobbying ultimately succeeded in forcing the
appointment of a Select Committee to investigate the scheme; subsequently, two
expeditions were dispatched (the first led by Chesney himself) which proved that
the Euphrates was navigable. But there the matter lapsed and when the scheme
resurfaced in 1856 it was dropped after French opposition. In 1871 the Turkish
Ambassador in London wrote that he would like to see a line constructed from
Constantinople to Basra but he doubted, although the Imperial Government would
look favourably upon it, whether it could be accomplished at that time. The
lingering doubt that the line, which would be undeniably expensive, might not be
a commercial success also weighed against it. Finally, it was the Suez Canal
which killed off British interest — yet even de Lesseps, the Canal’s
builder, had been in favour of the ‘Euphrates Valley railway’ as a
‘benefaction to countries now disinherited’ by the Canal.
At first the British were not hostile to the idea of the German built
railway; besides, the preliminary concession only covered the exploration of the
ground and it would be some years before construction of the actual line started
if, indeed, the Germans were capable of raising the finance. By 1901 the
position had changed. The previous year Russia had secured a monopoly of railway
building in the Turkish provinces bordering Russia and the Black Sea;
while, in 1898, the British had been seriously alarmed at rumours that the
Russians had obtained a concession for a railway from Tripoli (in Syria) to
Koweit. The desire of Salisbury not to exacerbate further the already tense
state of Anglo-Russian relations did not sit happily with the prospect of
Russian railway interests spreading like a stain through eastern Turkey and,
especially, the Persian Gulf; indeed, some voices in London were prepared to
argue that a German presence in the Gulf would be the best method of limiting
Russian expansion. For the moment, all that Britain had to fall back on was the
tenuous position of Koweiti sovereignty. Although recognizing that the Turks had
‘some vague form of sovereignty over this territory’, Britain was still
disposed, in 1898, ‘to accept the Sheikh’s invitation to declare a British
protectorate.’ However, fearing that ‘very serious diplomatic complications
might ensue’ as a result, the British Ambassador to the Porte recommended
instead that a secret understanding should be concluded. And so, on 23 January
1899, an agreement was signed by which, for payment of 15,000 rupees, the Sheikh
could not dispose of any part of his territory – by sale or lease – without
British consent. As part of the agreement the Indian Government was authorized
‘to prevent by force any attempt on the part of the Turks to attack Koweit.’
By March 1902 the Foreign Secretary, Lansdowne, had been converted to the idea
that, if the railway was going to be built (and construction had to begin in
1903 under the terms of the definitive concession), then the best solution would
be British participation in the scheme upon equitable terms.
It thus began to appear that the British wish for an interest in the line
would mesh perfectly with the German need for additional capital to the benefit
of both countries (the French were also interested in investing). Furthermore,
the Turks had agreed to a subsidy for the railway per kilometre of track built
– with the result that the route became somewhat circuitous
– however to do this required an increase in custom dues, the principal source
of revenue for the Turkish state, but which would itself necessitate the consent
of the Powers who had been placed in charge of Turkish finances following
earlier defaults.
Clearly some form of British and French participation would go a long way
towards removing these obstacles from Germany’s path. Lansdowne reiterated his
belief, early in February 1903, that Britain should be involved and that ‘the
line should, as far as possible, be placed upon an international basis, so that
no part of it would be controlled or guarded by a single Power.’
It seemed, then, that there simply remained the technical question of the terms
of participation to be settled; by April, however, the British Government found
itself under attack both from within and without.
The National Review began, in
that month, what subsequently became a co-ordinated press campaign against any
form of Anglo-German co-operation, which was sufficient enough to convert some
backbenchers against the railway scheme but which, possibly, the Government
could have weathered. What finally settled the fate of the railway, however, was
the determined and opportunistic opposition of the Colonial Secretary, Joseph
Chamberlain.
The proposal placed before the British Syndicate meant that, although putting up
an equal share of the capital, Britain could hope for no more than seven
directors to match ten French and thirteen German, a difficulty quickly latched
on to by Chamberlain who noted the inequality of the arrangement which would
leave the British group in ‘a permanent minority.’
As a consequence, further negotiations were called for but the Germans were
disinclined to budge. This intransigence, in the belief that the terms offered
were perfectly adequate, convinced the Under-Secretary of State at the Foreign
Office, Lord Sanderson, that the chances were ‘decidedly in favour of the line
being constructed ultimately without us unless we consent to join. Even so
however I would still run the risk unless we can get our terms.’
The British position was intrinsically weak, as Sanderson had belatedly
come to realize. This weakness could be disguised by a calculated bluff; what
could not be disguised was the fact that Chamberlain remained the real stumbling
block.
Arthur Balfour, the Conservative Prime Minister, while supporting his Foreign
Secretary, nevertheless viewed the issue of the Baghdad Railway as a minor one.
The pre-eminent threat, as far as Balfour was concerned, remained Russia. The
Prime Minister’s new Defence Committee (shortly to be renamed the Committee of
Imperial Defence) had had its second meeting on 11 February 1903. In
anticipation, the War Office circulated for discussion a paper on the military
position in India on the outbreak of war between Britain and the Franco-Russian
alliance while, for the Admiralty, the Director of Naval Intelligence (D.N.I.),
Battenberg, prepared a paper on the effect of Britain’s naval position in the
Mediterranean of ‘1. Freedom of ingress and egress in respect of the
Dardanelles for the Russians, 2. the occupation of Constantinople by the
Russians.’ It transpired that, at this meeting, only Battenberg’s paper was
debated: the D.N.I. reasoned that there was no naval advantage to be had by
merely occupying Constantinople and, therefore, it would have to be taken for
granted that the Dardanelles would be seized at the same time. Russian naval
bases then in the Black Sea were some 800 miles from the line of communication
to India via Suez but a Russian fleet at the Dardanelles would shorten this
distance by 440 miles. Nevertheless, it remained ‘inconceivable’ that Russia
would pit her Black Sea fleet against the British Mediterranean Fleet unless she
counted on French assistance and, as the French Fleet remained the primary
objective of the British, the Russians might, initially, have a free hand. If
the Russian position were firmly established, Battenberg postulated, would she
‘extend her power along the shores of Macedonia in one direction, and of Asia
Minor in the other? The former must bring her into conflict, sooner or later,
with Austria, whilst the latter might embroil her with Germany over the Baghdad
Railway, and certainly with France as Syria was approached.’ Battenberg
therefore sanguinely concluded that a Russian occupation of the Bosphorus and
Dardanelles ‘such as her dominating influence can extract from Turkey at her
pleasure, would not make any marked difference in our strategic dispositions as
compared with present conditions.’
If the D.N.I. could conceive of no useful purpose for the Baghdad Railway
other than acting as a check on a possible, though unlikely, Russian incursion
in that direction why should Balfour be particularly alarmed? Besides, it is
clear from the discussions in the Defence Committee throughout the rest of the
year that the dominant concern was the threat posed by Russia to India, not
Turkey.
For the meantime, Chamberlain carried the day: the Germans could begin to build
their railway while the Government could always reconsider the question of
British involvement at a later stage.
This lukewarm attitude of the British to the problem of Turkey was typified
when, during 1903, Sanderson at the Foreign Office was apparently approached by
the representative of a Paris-based group of Ottoman refugees plotting the
overthrow of Abdul Hamid. Despite the obvious attractions Lansdowne gave the
plotters limited support only which, in any event, proved superfluous as the
conspiracy miscarried.
Balfour’s own position was later made clear to Lansdowne: exasperated by the
Turks, Balfour favoured the Bulgarians, who ‘would be much more efficient
guardians of the Straits than Turkey ever seems likely to be’.
By
the end of 1905 the strategic situation had turned around once more: the First
Moroccan crisis and the forthcoming conference at Algeciras would result in a
closer Anglo-French alignment against Germany, cementing the 1904 Entente, while
Russia had been defeated by Japan in the Far East. Then the incoming Liberal
Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Grey, pragmatically continued Lansdowne’s
efforts to negotiate an Anglo-Russian Entente to resolve outstanding colonial
differences. ‘I want to get on with Russia, but it is not easy’, Grey had
written in April 1906. ‘First of all there can be no real business done, till
the King can visit the Tsar and I cannot urge that yet. Things are too unsettled
in Russia…If I could only be sure of a calm interval in Russian internal
affairs I would do what I could to urge a visit on the King; but one cannot with
good hope or even decency advise the King yet to fix a date for it’. Grey was
also ‘trying to reopen the Baghdad Railway question, so as to get the Russians
to come in’.
This was a far cry from 1903 when it was hoped the paramount German interest in
the railway would halt the creeping advance of Russian influence in Turkey.
Instead, Germany apparently now held sway at the Porte: German exports to Turkey
had risen six fold (admittedly from a very small base) since 1888;
the Germans did not, seemingly, meddle in Turkish internal affairs; the German
military were universally admired; and the civilians even bothered to learn
Turkish.
As always, the reality was different from the perception: although Britain’s
overall share of the Turkish market was in decline, by 1908, over a third of
Turkish exports still went to Britain who in turn supplied 32% of her imports.
For Germany the figures were 4% and 6% respectively.
The myth of German economic penetration was nevertheless a useful ploy in
attempting to wrest ever more concessions from the Sultan.
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